Every so often, the media latches onto the Next Big Thing. It’s usually hearalded by some book (which has a P.R. firm working overtime), with an author making the talking head TV show circuit. These writers prognosticate in grave tones about the future, and predict Where The Planet Is Going.

Feh.

Most of these clowns are wrong, in that they use the local TV weatherman as their performance model, as opposed to, oh, say an Old Testament prophet. (For those of you not hip to Bible prophesy, the Bible itself offers a one-stop litmus test to determine if a prophet is the real McCoy or a fraud. The Bible standard is 100% accuracy. Given that this is something of an exacting standard, it’s easy to see why the scribes would seek out a little less demanding spec.)

I’ve seen books on future trends (“Futuretrends”), books on the environment (“Earth in the Balance,” by that noted environmental scientist, Al” I invented the Internet” Gore), and even prophesy (“The Late, Great Planet Earth.”) All have proven to be a mixed bag – a mixture of outright mistakes, exaggerations, missed cues, distortions, and a fact or accuracy thrown in for good measure, just to see if we’re paying attention.

The sad part is that the media (and that portion of the general public that lets the media do their thinking for them, which at last count would be “most of them”) run around after these authors like the crowd Chicken Little gathered after he began loudly proclaiming “The sky is falling! The sky is falling!” (Much of what is wrong with this world can be attributed to the fact that the leaders of New Education scrapped reading classics in empirical thinking like “Chicken Little” and instead foisted upon our youth such scintillating fare as “Heather has Two Mommies.”) They latch on to the latest trend like a life ring thrown to a man overboard upon the Seven Seas, and cling to it like white on rice…that is until the next trend comes along. Which is why we were all worried about Global Cooling in the 60′s (along with “nuclear winter”) and Global Warming in the “aughts.” Sigh…

I’m here to tell you, however, that there ARE trends you can latch on to, but they are driven, not by authors wanting to make a buck, but consumers wanting to save a buck.

TREND #1: LAY-A-WAY

Yup. That moldie oldie is back, and is likely here to stay, at least until happy days are here again on the corner of Wall and Vine. You see, “pay as you go” makes a lot of sense in a world where you can’t get credit. If your company hasn’t re-instituted a Lay-a-way program, you’re missing out on a big trend.

TREND #2: REPAIR

When I was a kid, when something broke, you fixed it. In the last 25 years, that became “old fashioned” thinking, with the advent of “planned obscelecence.” No more. Repair shops (those that still exist) report a huge up-tick in small appliances, lamps, computers, and other repairable goods coming in for a once-over. If your business plan is counting on planned obscelecence and “this year’s model” to motivate shoppers to ditch the old in favor of the new, it’s time to do a critical re-think on your plans.

TREND #3: REPURPOSE

Oh, sure, “recycle” is all the rage with the Greenies, but only because they haven’t really thought things through. Some things (notably aluminum, paper and certain plastics) can be recycled easily and (here’s the important part) economically. Some literally aren’t worth the effort, despite the propaganda from ALGORE & Company. (If it takes more energy to recycle something than it does to produce it from new materials, then recycling actually HURTS the environment, geniuses.) And don’t forget that recycling is also subject to the rules of capitalism: pricing and supply/demand. For instance, the price of scrap aluminum went down about 75% in the last two months here in Amarillo. Recently, our supermarkets have been pushing reusable bags (which we’d have to purchase and remember to bring in each time we shop). Good deal for them – think of the money they’ll save on bags! Bad deal for us. Now, most people, I’m sure, simply throw their paper or plastic shopping bags away. Not us. The plastic bags are used to dispose of litter box effluvia, and to line small trash cans around the house. The paper bags are (mostly) used to hold enough wood to start a fire in our grille. We spray the bags with cooking oil and light the bag. We don’t use lighter fluid, the food tastes better, and we get to reuse the bags. So when the helpful, friendly checkout clerk asks us if we want to buy a bag, we say, emphatically, “No.” I maintain that “re-purpose” is the new “recycle.”

TREND #4: BUY USED

You have but to look at the automobile industry to see the truth in this one. A low-mileage used car depreciates slowly, is indistinguishable from a new car, and costs much less than a new one. What’s not to like? I’ve driven a used car for years, and let me tell you, not having a car payment for the last six years has made a huge difference in our budget. I don’t wanna claim “trendsetter” status here (I didn’t WANT to buy a used car…my finances dictated that decision), but it’s worked out to be a very smart one.

TREND #5: RETHINK

This one is something of a stretch, but I’m gonna go out on a limb, because of my gut. For a certain percentage of the populace, once they realize that something they’ve “always done” no longer gets the same results, they will change their behaviors accordingly. (Some, of course, will continue to do the same thing over and over, insisting that if only they try one more time, that it will surely work.) I suspect that a lot of people will start analyzing their “lifestyle choices” and start making decisions based on practicality, rather than habit.

So…how does (or how should) this affect your marketing? Well, if you’re not following Trend #5, then perhaps you should think about another trend: extinction…for if you don’t rethink your marketing based on what’s going on in the marketplace, your company will be destined to join the dinosaurs, spats, and button-down shoes in annals of “things that were once hip, but are no longer around.” As to how this will affect your company in a specific way, I dunno. You know your company better than I do. (At least, I hope you know your company better than I do.) But be aware, these trends (and more) are out there. Time to wake up and smell the coffee, people. And I don’t mean that $5 cuppa Joe at Starbucks. That’s last year’s thinking. Better start cruising down the aisles for a can of the generic blend. It’s gonna be a long winter of our discontent…

This entry was posted on Saturday, December 27th, 2008 at 12:01 pm and is filed under Random Stuff, marketing.You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.