Feh.

Most of these clowns are wrong, in that they use the local TV weatherman as their performance model, as opposed to, oh, say an Old Testament prophet. (For those of you not hip to Bible prophesy, the Bible itself offers a one-stop litmus test to determine if a prophet is the real McCoy or a fraud. The Bible standard is 100% accuracy. Given that this is something of an exacting standard, it’s easy to see why the scribes would seek out a little less demanding spec.)

I’ve seen books on future trends (“Futuretrends”), books on the environment (“Earth in the Balance,” by that noted environmental scientist, Al” I invented the Internet” Gore), and even prophesy (“The Late, Great Planet Earth.”) All have proven to be a mixed bag – a mixture of outright mistakes, exaggerations, missed cues, distortions, and a fact or accuracy thrown in for good measure, just to see if we’re paying attention.

The sad part is that the media (and that portion of the general public that lets the media do their thinking for them, which at last count would be “most of them”) run around after these authors like the crowd Chicken Little gathered after he began loudly proclaiming “The sky is falling! The sky is falling!” (Much of what is wrong with this world can be attributed to the fact that the leaders of New Education scrapped reading classics in empirical thinking like “Chicken Little” and instead foisted upon our youth such scintillating fare as “Heather has Two Mommies.”) They latch on to the latest trend like a life ring thrown to a man overboard upon the Seven Seas, and cling to it like white on rice…that is until the next trend comes along. Which is why we were all worried about Global Cooling in the 60′s (along with “nuclear winter”) and Global Warming in the “aughts.” Sigh…

I’m here to tell you, however, that there ARE trends you can latch on to, but they are driven, not by authors wanting to make a buck, but consumers wanting to save a buck.

TREND #1: LAY-A-WAY

Yup. That moldie oldie is back, and is likely here to stay, at least until happy days are here again on the corner of Wall and Vine. You see, “pay as you go” makes a lot of sense in a world where you can’t get credit. If your company hasn’t re-instituted a Lay-a-way program, you’re missing out on a big trend.

TREND #2: REPAIR

When I was a kid, when something broke, you fixed it. In the last 25 years, that became “old fashioned” thinking, with the advent of “planned obscelecence.” No more. Repair shops (those that still exist) report a huge up-tick in small appliances, lamps, computers, and other repairable goods coming in for a once-over. If your business plan is counting on planned obscelecence and “this year’s model” to motivate shoppers to ditch the old in favor of the new, it’s time to do a critical re-think on your plans.

TREND #3: REPURPOSE

Oh, sure, “recycle” is all the rage with the Greenies, but only because they haven’t really thought things through. Some things (notably aluminum, paper and certain plastics) can be recycled easily and (here’s the important part) economically. Some literally aren’t worth the effort, despite the propaganda from ALGORE & Company. (If it takes more energy to recycle something than it does to produce it from new materials, then recycling actually HURTS the environment, geniuses.) And don’t forget that recycling is also subject to the rules of capitalism: pricing and supply/demand. For instance, the price of scrap aluminum went down about 75% in the last two months here in Amarillo. Recently, our supermarkets have been pushing reusable bags (which we’d have to purchase and remember to bring in each time we shop). Good deal for them – think of the money they’ll save on bags! Bad deal for us. Now, most people, I’m sure, simply throw their paper or plastic shopping bags away. Not us. The plastic bags are used to dispose of litter box effluvia, and to line small trash cans around the house. The paper bags are (mostly) used to hold enough wood to start a fire in our grille. We spray the bags with cooking oil and light the bag. We don’t use lighter fluid, the food tastes better, and we get to reuse the bags. So when the helpful, friendly checkout clerk asks us if we want to buy a bag, we say, emphatically, “No.” I maintain that “re-purpose” is the new “recycle.”

TREND #4: BUY USED

You have but to look at the automobile industry to see the truth in this one. A low-mileage used car depreciates slowly, is indistinguishable from a new car, and costs much less than a new one. What’s not to like? I’ve driven a used car for years, and let me tell you, not having a car payment for the last six years has made a huge difference in our budget. I don’t wanna claim “trendsetter” status here (I didn’t WANT to buy a used car…my finances dictated that decision), but it’s worked out to be a very smart one.

TREND #5: RETHINK

This one is something of a stretch, but I’m gonna go out on a limb, because of my gut. For a certain percentage of the populace, once they realize that something they’ve “always done” no longer gets the same results, they will change their behaviors accordingly. (Some, of course, will continue to do the same thing over and over, insisting that if only they try one more time, that it will surely work.) I suspect that a lot of people will start analyzing their “lifestyle choices” and start making decisions based on practicality, rather than habit.

So…how does (or how should) this affect your marketing? Well, if you’re not following Trend #5, then perhaps you should think about another trend: extinction…for if you don’t rethink your marketing based on what’s going on in the marketplace, your company will be destined to join the dinosaurs, spats, and button-down shoes in annals of “things that were once hip, but are no longer around.” As to how this will affect your company in a specific way, I dunno. You know your company better than I do. (At least, I hope you know your company better than I do.) But be aware, these trends (and more) are out there. Time to wake up and smell the coffee, people. And I don’t mean that $5 cuppa Joe at Starbucks. That’s last year’s thinking. Better start cruising down the aisles for a can of the generic blend. It’s gonna be a long winter of our discontent…

So how do you market to sheeple?

Well, you can start with, by doing one of two things – going with the flow, or bucking the trends. For instance, Big Oil has seen the light – all their ads talk about the wonderful things they’re doing with alternative energy development. This is largely a survival tactic. GE is pushing “green” like there’s no tomorrow, but that’s not for surviving – they’ll thrive, since they have a huge part of the market for green lightbulbs and other (more expensive) replacments for current technology.

Go against the flow, and you have a tougher road to hoe, but (paradoxically) it’s easier to get noticed, simply because you stand out from the herd when you’re not singing from the same songbook that everyone else does.

Which one you choose depends on your own special circumstances and needs. Either way you go, it pays to keep your eyes and ears open, spending at least part of your time trend-spotting. Do that, and you’re likely to see market shifts before it becomes an emergency to change strategies or tatics. Fail to spot a trend, and you’ll end up wasting heads-up time, and potentially putting your enterprise in jeopardy.

Frankly, like everybody else, I’m feeling my way here. But I can give you some insight as to what’s changed, so with a tip ‘o the Captain Digital helmet to Wired Magazine, here’s a guide to what’s in and what’s out:

So what does this mean to your marketing? Depends on the client. If you’re a marketer, it’s your job to start helping your clients realize that it’s a new world out there, and you can’t think “business as usual” – if they expect to survive. If you’re into retail, start emphasizing Lay-a-way over credit. If you’re in the luxury goods biz, start thinking about bolstering your lower end lines. If you’re in a market that’s sporting a trend, follow it.

That’s my advice. I’m sure there are other trends out there I haven’t touched on, but I think you get the idea. Keep your heads low, your eyes and ears open, and keep those track shoes on. You’re gonna need ‘em.

Things have changed.

Today I can blow off the concept of color seps entirely. I send out a PDF file (usually over the web) and the printer either sends it to a plateless, digital press, or makes the plates from the PDF. No need for color seps, and I seldom have to deal with Match prints or color proofs. (Granted, I don’t do a huge amount of exacting color print work right now – most of my business has moved to online work.)

Of course, online work brings a whole ‘nother set of challenges. No end-user calibrates their monitors – nor would even understand why that’s important. Browsers interpret HTML, CSS, and JavaScript differently, as do different operating system platforms. Consistency? Fergettaboutit. There is no way to build a website that looks and works the same way on every browser/platform, short of doing the entire thing in Flash, which opens up different – but equally as daunting – cans full ‘o grief. Add PDAs and palmtops to the mix, and you’ve got some Excedrin-sized nightmares.

So it seems things haven’t changed all that much, at least as far as the headache part.

What interests me from a marketing perspective, is that the media may have undergone a huge, tectonic shift, but the need to communicate the message has not. Fundamentally, all of marketing can be distilled down to telling a compelling story to enough people to make a difference. That’s it. The whole enchilada. No story, no marketing. No marketing, no sales. No sales…well, you get the picture.

When we talk about what’s changed, you really have to divide that into two groups – tools and techniques. Tools have changed so much that an artist trained in 1970s techniques would be lost – or useless – today. How we use those tools hasn’t really changed that much – but perhaps it should.

Take TV. The advent of the DVR (a.ka. “Tivo”) has revolutionized the way we watch television. To date, however, it hasn’t done much to change the way marketers use television to advertise. Thus, TV has become a much more expensive medium, CPM-wise, because so many are skipping the commercials.

How about radio? Terrestrial advertisers answer to the satellite revolution was to go online. That caused conflict with talent, who wanted to be compensated for the additional exposure – and overpriced themselves out of the market. The result is that advertisers have to buy space on the air AND online, and never the twain shall meet. Double your anguish, double your costs. Ouch.

Newspapers? Magazines? Readership is down, and if you believe all the “top of mind” hype they try to push at their clients and prospects, I’ve got a bridge in Brooklyn you might be interested in purchasing.

Online? It can be effective, but most of the traditional advertising tools – you know, “bigger, louder, more annoying” – just don’t work online. Social networking sites and Instant Messaging are the Brave New Worlds to conquer for advertisers…if only they knew how to reach people without annoying them or losing all credibility.

What’s vital to understand is that what we are witnessing is a change from one era to the next, in the same magnitude (and with the same results) of the change from the eras where dinosaurs ruled the Earth to the one where they dissappeared. It’s not just the tools that have changed. It’s how we will have to use them in order to be effective marketers.

So let me pull out my crystal ball and see what I can see for the future…

TV. Wow. Big changes here. I predict a lot more annoying promotions at the bottom of your screen. Perhaps desperate networks (there’s a great name for a dramady!) may even try to pump ads into the space. Continually. Hopefully, they’ll stop covering up the story with their ads, and relegate them to the letterbox bars. Don’t hold your breath. I think product placements are the trend of the future here. Only the well-heeled need apply. TV spots as we know them today are an endangered species.

Radio: Local radio will be forced to evolve, and become more…well…local. Not much point in local radio if all they’re gonna do is to broadcast nationally-syndicated shows, when you can get the same thing – only better – from your satradio. Advertising won’t change that much, other than trying to find a metric that will let you know what’s working.

Print: Good luck. Newspapers are dying. Magazines are becoming much more the realm of narrow, specialized interests. That’s good news for targeting campaigns – but bad news if you want a generalized reach. There will always be a market for print, but it’s heyday or dominating the world of advertising is over, unless some global EMP shuts down electronics for good.

Email: Dead man walking. I wouldn’t suggest an email campaign to a client for any amount of money. Spam has all but killed the usefulness of email as a marketing tool – EXCEPT if you’re into permission-based marketing.

Instant Messaging: If anybody figures out how to SPAM phones, this will quickly become this year’s email…in other words, soon to be coming to a “useless technology” seminar near you. Until then, it’s great for permission marketing.

Websites: Few use the web to its fullest advantage. Websites should be targeted at specific user types. Don’t force users to figure out how to get info from you – figure out how they prefer it, and serve it up, fresh and hot to them. Lots of room for growth and innovation here.

Viral: This is the gold mine. Right here. Figure out how to grow your market by giving your clients respect, and allowing your market to grow through word-of-mouth. Figuring out how to use the tools we have available to accomplish this feat is the question of the new age.

Outdoor: The rules remain the same – it sorta works, depending on the client, and of course, location, location, location. Unfortunately, unless you’ve got a big honkin’ budget, the big guys get the best seat at the table.

Other: Advertisers are constantly looking for new ways to get their messages before the public. Shopping carts. Supermarket floors. Automobile wraps. Hot air balloons. You name it. If it works, do it, but keep in mind, the more ads there are, the more visual clutter results. Hard to cut through that clutter when everybody else is screaming just as loudly as you are.

The Secret: I dunno. Wish I did. My best guess is that it’s going to involve a lot of hard work, reading tea leaves, trial and error, and trying to build relationships with customers, instead of treating them as some generic demographic. Which is to say that, the more things change…